Flight to non-USD quality
Over the last few weeks, being on “garden leave” has given me a great opportunity to watch recent events unfolding from the sidelines. In that time, I’ve made a lot of comments. Some of them I hope make some sense. Some of them have probably been fairly ludicrous. I’m an admitted amateur and even the pros are struggling these days. One of the most ludicrous things I’ve said was on July 25 over on NP:
I also suspect that a “sovereign” flight to quality will not be a flight to US treasuries and in fact may be a flight away from US treasuries into EUR denominated government bonds. So as the credit market turns, the typical safe haven will not be available as even treasuries get whacked from sovereign sellers.
As ludicrous as the statement was, this morning Brad Setser wrote an article that caught my attention:
As usual, great stuff from Brad! He also notes the importance of oil in this equation. It really does seem feasible that the USD is waning as the dominant world currency.