Archive for September, 2007

Public apology to my favorite market blogger Barry Ritholtz

September 24, 2007

I suck. I suck. I suck
I read Barry Ritholtz’ blog The Big Picture religiously. It is by far, my favorite blog. Recently, he went on a rant about receiving lame emails containing tips/links.
Ways to achieve a painful, early death
In particular, take note of items 7 and 8
7.) Please do not send me info [...]

Real money M&A

September 23, 2007

Way way back a long time ago (in August), I clarified a semantic issue regarding one of my market forecasts (more like voodoo analysis) I made on July 24 here:
Non-Leveraged M&As versus LBOs
Here is a snippet:
But regarding that quote above from my last post, there is something I wanted to clarify. Particular the chain of [...]

True lies and risk management

September 23, 2007

Quantitative risk management is actually one of the topics that I can speak about with some authority because I have worked in the area professionally. Seeing the smoke and mirrors that goes on behind the scenes, I managed to convince myself that one of the greatest dangers to the markets is, ironically, risk management. I’ve [...]

Ouch!

September 23, 2007

I lack the talent much less the venom to put together such a scathing piece as the one that Alan Abelson beautifully constructed over on Barron’s (via The Big Picture)
It’s publicly available for the time being so run and take a look while you still can:
Debasing Bernanke: BEN BLINKED
Wow!

Bye bye dollar

September 22, 2007

Needless to say, after my comment on August 28
PS: I’ve been ignorantly harsh on both Greenspan and Bernanke, but I have to say that I am quite impressed with Bernanke’s recent performance maneuvering through the current credit crisis. I expect him to hold the target rate at 5.25% on September 18. If he does, I’ll [...]

A Fine Fine Line

September 18, 2007

This is from a friend and former colleague of mine who is a member of the esteemed Richter Scales

I love it!
[Edit: Here's a direct link to the video.]

Happy Birthday!

September 9, 2007

Oh yeah, another reason for this blog is to show off pictures of Sophia!

I particularly like this one with grandma

Flight to non-USD quality revisited

September 9, 2007

Historically, sovereign reserves were (from my understanding) ultra conservative and consisted of mostly US treasuries. Increasingly, these sovereign reserves have been managed more actively and we are hearing more and more about the growth in sovereign wealth funds. When 40% of all US debt is held OUTSIDE the US, what is going to happen in [...]

Would a rate cut really help?

September 9, 2007

What is the Fed going to do on September 18?
With the latest news coming from the NFP report, I think even the staunchest opponents to a rate cut are starting to capitulate. Except me!
I still think the Fed should hold tight and resist the pressure to lower the rate. Sure, that would likely lead to [...]

High yield pipeline gets its first real test

September 9, 2007

Even before things in credit markets went completely haywire, there were technical concerns about the building pipeline of new high yield issues that were feeding into CLOs, which were in turn spurring the LBO boom. My own quantitative analysis had shown that high yield was particularly vulnerable going back to September 2006 (which my models [...]