Archive for September, 2007
September 24, 2007
I suck. I suck. I suck
I read Barry Ritholtz’ blog The Big Picture religiously. It is by far, my favorite blog. Recently, he went on a rant about receiving lame emails containing tips/links.
Ways to achieve a painful, early death
In particular, take note of items 7 and 8
7.) Please do not send me info [...]
Categories: Uncategorized
Comments: 2 Comments
September 23, 2007
Way way back a long time ago (in August), I clarified a semantic issue regarding one of my market forecasts (more like voodoo analysis) I made on July 24 here:
Non-Leveraged M&As versus LBOs
Here is a snippet:
But regarding that quote above from my last post, there is something I wanted to clarify. Particular the chain of [...]
Categories: M&A, Markets, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Structured Finance
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September 23, 2007
Quantitative risk management is actually one of the topics that I can speak about with some authority because I have worked in the area professionally. Seeing the smoke and mirrors that goes on behind the scenes, I managed to convince myself that one of the greatest dangers to the markets is, ironically, risk management. I’ve [...]
Categories: Risk Management
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September 23, 2007
I lack the talent much less the venom to put together such a scathing piece as the one that Alan Abelson beautifully constructed over on Barron’s (via The Big Picture)
It’s publicly available for the time being so run and take a look while you still can:
Debasing Bernanke: BEN BLINKED
Wow!
Categories: Federal Reserve
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September 22, 2007
Needless to say, after my comment on August 28
PS: I’ve been ignorantly harsh on both Greenspan and Bernanke, but I have to say that I am quite impressed with Bernanke’s recent performance maneuvering through the current credit crisis. I expect him to hold the target rate at 5.25% on September 18. If he does, I’ll [...]
Categories: Currencies, Discount Rate, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Oil, Petrodollars, Sovereign Wealth Funds
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September 18, 2007
This is from a friend and former colleague of mine who is a member of the esteemed Richter Scales
I love it!
[Edit: Here's a direct link to the video.]
Categories: Uncategorized
Comments: 1 Comment
September 9, 2007
Oh yeah, another reason for this blog is to show off pictures of Sophia!
I particularly like this one with grandma
Categories: Personal
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September 9, 2007
Historically, sovereign reserves were (from my understanding) ultra conservative and consisted of mostly US treasuries. Increasingly, these sovereign reserves have been managed more actively and we are hearing more and more about the growth in sovereign wealth funds. When 40% of all US debt is held OUTSIDE the US, what is going to happen in [...]
Categories: Flight to Quality, Sovereign Wealth Funds, US Treasuries
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September 9, 2007
What is the Fed going to do on September 18?
With the latest news coming from the NFP report, I think even the staunchest opponents to a rate cut are starting to capitulate. Except me!
I still think the Fed should hold tight and resist the pressure to lower the rate. Sure, that would likely lead to [...]
Categories: Deflation, Economic Darwinism, Employment, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Recession
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September 9, 2007
Even before things in credit markets went completely haywire, there were technical concerns about the building pipeline of new high yield issues that were feeding into CLOs, which were in turn spurring the LBO boom. My own quantitative analysis had shown that high yield was particularly vulnerable going back to September 2006 (which my models [...]
Categories: Credit, Default Rates, High Yield, LBO, Markets, Private Equity
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